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Anteil der 17- und 18-Jährigen mit (angestrebter) Studienberechtigung
Year Value Units Series
2018 21.1 Percentage points Difference between No risk situation and At least one risk situation
2019 17.9 Percentage points Difference between No risk situation and At least one risk situation
2020 18.4 Percentage points Difference between No risk situation and At least one risk situation
2021 19.7 Percentage points Difference between No risk situation and At least one risk situation
2022 21.5 Percentage points Difference between No risk situation and At least one risk situation
2023 21.3 Percentage points Difference between No risk situation and At least one risk situation

This table includes additional information to the above visualized indicators, like a short definition of this indicator and a description of the politically determined target values as well as explaining the political intention behind selecting this indicator.

Definition

The indicator shows the proportion of 17- and 18-year-olds who attend a grammar school or a vocational school leading to a higher education entrance qualification or who have already achieved a higher education entrance qualification, out of all 17- and 18-year-olds. It shows the difference between the corresponding proportions of 17- and 18-year-olds with No risk situation and 17- and 18-year-olds with At least one risk situation. The three risk situations are the social risk situation, the risk situation of formally low-qualified parents and the financial risk situation.
Intention

Education is a key prerequisite for participation, prosperity and economic and social development. A reduced influence of social background on the educational path of children and young people is an indicator of equal opportunities in the education system.
Target

Reduce or eliminate the gap between the groups no risk situation and at least one risk situation
Type of target

Directional target
Assessment

The difference in the proportion of 17- and 18-year-olds with (aspired) university entrance qualifications between those without risk situation and those with at least one risk situation should be reduced.
• According to the target formulation, the six-year average trend – despite a slight improvement in 2023 – shows an increase. Indicator 4.3.b is therefore assessed as cloud for 2023.

Weathersymbol: cloud

4.3.b Proportion of 17- and 18-year-olds with (aspired) university entrance qualification

Content and methodology

The indicator measures the proportion of 17- and 18-year-olds who either hold or are aiming to obtain a university entrance qualification. The latter group includes 17- and 18-year-olds attending grammar schools or vocational schools that lead to the general or specialised university entrance qualification.

The indicator distinguishes between 17- and 18-year-olds who are exposed to so-called risk factors due to their social background and those who are not. The risk factors include social risk, defined as having neither parent in employment; the risk of formally low-qualified parents, where no parent holds a completed vocational qualification or university entrance qualification; and financial risk, where the household net equivalised income falls below the poverty risk threshold.

These risks often occur together, meaning many young people are exposed to multiple risk factors simultaneously. Four per cent of under-18s were affected by all three risk factors at once, while 30.9% were affected by at least one of them.

The data are based on the Microcensus of the Federal Statistical Office, an annual sample survey covering 1% of the population in Germany. Due to a comprehensive redesign of the Microcensus in 2020, data collected from that year onwards are only partly comparable with those from previous years. The 2023 results are based on preliminary data from the Microcensus first results.

Development and methodological limitations

In 2023, 58.6% of 17- and 18-year-olds either held or were aiming to obtain a university entrance qualification. Among 17- and 18-year-olds exposed to one or more risk factors, this proportion was significantly lower at 43.7%. For those without risk factors, the proportion was 65.0%.

The university entrance qualification can also be obtained at other types of schools, such as comprehensive schools. However, since these schools mainly lead to a lower secondary or intermediate school leaving certificate, 17- and 18-year-olds aiming to obtain a university entrance qualification at, for example, a comprehensive school are not included. In this respect, the indicator underestimates the actual situation.

The indicator includes not only 17- and 18-year-olds who already hold a university entrance qualification but also those attending a school type primarily aimed at obtaining such a qualification. Actual completion rates, which can be considerably lower, are not factored into the indicator. Therefore, the number of university entrance qualifications aimed for does not correspond to the number eventually achieved.

This exclusion of actual qualifications mainly stems from methodological reasons: many pupils obtain their university entrance qualification only after the age of 18. However, only around 84% of 19-year-olds still live with at least one parent in the same household, meaning that for the remaining 16%, no information is available to determine their risk status.

Another limitation of the indicator’s validity is that about 15% of 17-year-olds and 7% of 18-year-olds are still attending lower secondary education (up to grades 9/10). In these cases, it is sometimes unclear whether these young people are pursuing a course of education aimed at obtaining the university entrance qualification.

In 2023, the gap between the proportions of 17- and 18-year-olds with and without risk factors who either hold or aim to obtain a university entrance qualification was 21.3 percentage points. No clear trend has emerged in recent years, making it impossible to estimate the likelihood of achieving the target.