Status of indicators – Methodology
To provide a quick overview of the status of individual indicators, each indicator – where calculable – is assigned one of four possible weather symbols. This labelling does not represent a political assessment or a forecast. Rather, the symbols offer an initial assessment of developments and are not a substitute for the explanatory texts, further analyses, or background information. The assignment of symbols to indicators is based on the formulation of the respective target:
Indicators with absolute or relative target values
In most cases, an indicator is expected to achieve a specific absolute or relative target value in a designated target year (for example, indicator 3.1.a). For such a target formulation, the average of the last five annual changes is first calculated based on the most recent six data points. This average serves as an assumption for the projected annual development up to the target year. On this basis, a hypothetical target value is derived and compared with the politically defined target value of the indicator. The difference between these two values determines the assignment of one of the following symbols:
If the trend continues, the target value would be reached or missed by less than 5% of the difference between the target value and the current value (on-track indicator).
If the trend continues, the target is expected to be missed by at least 5% but no more than 20% of the difference between the target value and the current value (on-track indicator).
The indicator is developing in the desired direction. However, if this trend continues, the target is expected to be missed by more than 20% of the difference between the target value and the current value in the target year (off-track indicator).
The distance to the target remains consistently large or even increases. The indicator is therefore not developing in the desired direction (off-track indicator).
In exceptional cases, the calculation of the average change described above may be based on four or five data points. If fewer than four usable annual values are available, no calculation is performed.
Indicators with target intervals
If no specific target value is specified, but rather a target interval (for example, indicator 11.1.a), the minimum requirement of this target interval is used as the basis for calculating the status. If an indicator has several target values with different target years (for example, indicator 7.2.a), the target year closest to the future is used for the status calculation.
Indicators with a constant annual target
If a target or threshold value is not to be achieved in the future but must be maintained each year (for example, indicator 6.2.a, b), two pieces of information are used for the assessment: primarily the most recent value achieved, and secondarily, the average of the last five changes:
- If the target value or a better value was achieved last year and the average change does not indicate a deterioration, a sun is shown.
- If the target value or a better value was achieved last year, but the average change indicates a deterioration, the sun remains but is slightly obscured by a cloud.
- If the target value was not achieved, but the average development is moving in the desired direction, only a cloud is shown.
- If the target value was not achieved and the average development is not moving towards the target, the thunderstorm symbol is shown.
This procedure is also applied when an indicator is supposed to reach a specific target value for a specified target year but has already reached it beforehand, or when the target year coincides with the last reporting year. In these cases, the standard procedure does not provide a reliable indication of the development.
Indicators with target direction but no specific target value
If only a desired target direction but no specific target value, is specified for an indicator (for example, indicator 15.3.a), two pieces of information are used for the assessment: primarily the average of the last five changes and, secondarily, the most recent annual change:
- If both the average value and the latest annual change point in the desired direction, a sun is shown.
- If the average development points in the desired direction, but the latest annual change shows a contrary development or stagnation, the sun is slightly obscured by a cloud.
- If the average value indicates the wrong direction or stagnation, but the latest annual change indicates a turnaround in the desired direction, a cloud is shown.
- If neither the average value nor the latest annual change indicates the desired direction, a thunderstorm is shown.
Indicators with several target values
If several targets are defined for an indicator that must be achieved simultaneously (for example, indicator 10.1), the development towards each individual target is assessed separately. The weather symbol for the indicator is then based on the most negative individual assessment.
Assessments over time
The overview table shows the assessments of the indicators from previous years, indicating whether the weather symbol for an indicator has been stable or rather volatile in the past.